15 Jul · 16:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
UD
🇺🇦Ulana Dronova
ELO 1577
FormLWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kurtenko
AK
🇺🇦Alina Kurtenko
ELO 1596
FormLLLLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Kurtenko
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.