16 Jul · 13:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
UD
🇺🇦Ulana Dronova
ELO 1582
FormWWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kurtenko
AK
🇺🇦Alina Kurtenko
ELO 1602
FormLLLLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Kurtenko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.