18 Jul · 21:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OI
🇺🇦Oleksandra Ivchenko
ELO 1593
FormLLWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Bondarenko
KB
🇺🇦Kateryna Bondarenko
ELO 1668
FormLWWLW
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ivchenko🌟Bondarenko goes over total as favourite 66% (59)
Fair odds · Bondarenko
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 69% · 1.46· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
20%
2-3
18%
3-1
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+75
H2H9-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+75)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-3)