18 Jul · 20:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AG
🇺🇦Anna Gorchakova
ELO 1431
FormWLLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Gorchakova
KT
🇺🇦Ksenia Tymchenko
ELO 1387
FormLLLLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Gorchakova
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 71% · 1.42· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+44
H2H29-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+44)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (29-6)