18 Jul · 20:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KB
🇺🇦Kateryna Bondarenko
ELO 1668
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Bondarenko
AV
🇺🇦Anastasiia Volgina
ELO 1633
FormWLLWW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Volgina🌟Bondarenko goes over total as favourite 66% (59)
Fair odds · Bondarenko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H8-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.