22 Jul · 06:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
NP
🇺🇦Nataliia Plokhotniuk
ELO 1736
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Plokhotniuk
AO
🇺🇦Alina Ovriakh
ELO 1720
FormWWLWL
52%
48%
🌟Ovriakh stays under total as underdog 76% (21)
Fair odds · Plokhotniuk
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H7-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.