26 Jul · 16:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇺🇦Anna Lapa
ELO 1508
FormLLLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Shevchuk
VS
🇺🇦Viktoria Shevchuk
ELO 1549
FormWLWLL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Shevchuk
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-1
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H14-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+41)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-5)