26 Jul · 14:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AL
🇺🇦Anna Lapa
ELO 1508
FormLLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Lapa
AG
🇺🇦Anna Gorchakova
ELO 1473
FormLLWLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Lapa
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H19-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.