31 Jul · 16:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OI
🇺🇦Oleksandra Ivchenko
ELO 1608
FormWLLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Bondarenko
KB
🇺🇦Kateryna Bondarenko
ELO 1679
FormWWWWL
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ivchenko🌟Ivchenko covers set handicap as underdog 64% (267)
Fair odds · Bondarenko
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+71
H2H10-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-3)