4 Aug · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
YM
🇺🇦Yana Mykhailyk
ELO 1443
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pashchenko
PP
🇺🇦Polina Pashchenko
ELO 1453
FormWWWWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Pashchenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H5-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.