7 Aug · 19:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AG
🇺🇦Anna Gorchakova
ELO 1489
FormLWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Gorchakova
AL
🇺🇦Anna Lapa
ELO 1486
FormLWLWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Gorchakova
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H26-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.