12 Aug · 11:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
NP
🇺🇦Nataliia Plokhotniuk
ELO 1725
FormLLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Yevtodii
IY
🇺🇦Iolanta Yevtodii
ELO 1765
FormWLLWW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Yevtodii
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H40-21
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+40)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (40-21)