12 Aug · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
UD
🇺🇦Ulana Dronova
ELO 1598
FormWLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Budnyk
RB
🇺🇦Roksolana Budnyk
ELO 1615
FormLLWWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Budnyk
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~73 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H6-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.