12 Aug · 09:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AO
🇺🇦Alina Ovriakh
ELO 1752
FormWWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Yevtodii
IY
🇺🇦Iolanta Yevtodii
ELO 1765
FormWLLWW
48%
52%
🌟Ovriakh stays under total as underdog 68% (25)
Fair odds · Yevtodii
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+13
H2H6-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.