13 Aug · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
NP
🇺🇦Nataliia Plokhotniuk
ELO 1712
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Ovriakh
AO
🇺🇦Alina Ovriakh
ELO 1738
FormWLLLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Ovriakh
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H8-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.