14 Aug · 20:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AG
🇺🇦Anna Gorchakova
ELO 1470
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lapa
AL
🇺🇦Anna Lapa
ELO 1493
FormLWLWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Lapa
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H20-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.