14 Aug · 17:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇺🇦Anna Lapa
ELO 1493
FormLWLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Lapa
OB
🇺🇦Olena Bondareva
ELO 1421
FormWWLWW
59%
41%
Fair odds · Lapa
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 72% · 1.38· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~74 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
15%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+72
H2H39-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+72)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (39-9)