16 Aug · 19:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇺🇦Anna Lapa
ELO 1489
FormLLLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Lapa
KT
🇺🇦Ksenia Tymchenko
ELO 1435
FormWLLLL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Lapa
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+54
H2H38-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+54)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (38-13)