16 Aug · 14:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AL
🇺🇦Anna Lapa
ELO 1489
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lapa
AG
🇺🇦Anna Gorchakova
ELO 1481
FormWWLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Lapa
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+8
H2H20-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.