16 Aug · 14:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OP
🇺🇦Olha Ponko
ELO 1477
FormLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Ponko
PP
🇺🇦Polina Pashchenko
ELO 1465
FormLWWWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Ponko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 29% · 3.44· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.