20 Aug · 18:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AL
🇺🇦Anna Lapa
ELO 1488
FormWWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Gorchakova
AG
🇺🇦Anna Gorchakova
ELO 1507
FormWWWLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Gorchakova
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H28-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.