20 Aug · 19:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
UD
🇺🇦Ulana Dronova
ELO 1591
FormLLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Dronova
AR
🇺🇦Anna Rzhevska
ELO 1558
FormLWLLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Dronova
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~72 pts
3-1
20%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H1-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.