22 Aug · 21:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OI
🇺🇦Oleksandra Ivchenko
ELO 1621
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Ivchenko
MG
🇺🇦Margarita Gordeets
ELO 1616
FormWLLLW
51%
49%
🌟Gordeets covers set handicap as underdog 65% (286)
Fair odds · Ivchenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H103-96
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.