22 Aug · 15:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AG
🇺🇦Anna Gorchakova
ELO 1520
FormWLLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Shevchuk
VS
🇺🇦Viktoria Shevchuk
ELO 1578
FormLWWWW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Shevchuk
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+58
H2H17-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (17-8)