23 Aug · 21:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
VS
🇺🇦Viktoria Shevchuk
ELO 1576
FormLLWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Volgina
AV
🇺🇦Anastasiia Volgina
ELO 1629
FormWWWWL
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Shevchuk
Fair odds · Volgina
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+53
H2H21-19
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (21-19)