23 Aug · 18:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
VS
🇺🇦Viktoria Shevchuk
ELO 1576
FormLLWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Ivchenko
OI
🇺🇦Oleksandra Ivchenko
ELO 1636
FormWWLWW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Ivchenko
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+60
H2H22-16
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (22-16)