29 Aug · 18:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KB
🇺🇦Kateryna Bondarenko
ELO 1666
FormLWLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Bondarenko
MG
🇺🇦Margarita Gordeets
ELO 1628
FormLLWWW
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Gordeets🌟Bondarenko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (95)
Fair odds · Bondarenko
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H7-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.