29 Aug · 15:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KB
🇺🇦Kateryna Bondarenko
ELO 1666
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Bondarenko
OI
🇺🇦Oleksandra Ivchenko
ELO 1640
FormWLWWW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ivchenko🌟Bondarenko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (95)
Fair odds · Bondarenko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H14-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.