29 Aug · 20:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OI
🇺🇦Oleksandra Ivchenko
ELO 1640
FormWLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Ivchenko
MG
🇺🇦Margarita Gordeets
ELO 1628
FormLLWWW
52%
48%
🌟Gordeets covers set handicap as underdog 64% (287)
Fair odds · Ivchenko
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H105-96
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.