30 Aug · 17:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AL
🇺🇦Anna Lapa
ELO 1482
FormLWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Lapa
AG
🇺🇦Anna Gorchakova
ELO 1462
FormLLLLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Lapa
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H21-28
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.