30 Aug · 20:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KT
🇺🇦Ksenia Tymchenko
ELO 1441
FormWWWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Lapa
AL
🇺🇦Anna Lapa
ELO 1482
FormLWWLL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Lapa
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-1
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H39-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+41)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (39-14)