30 Aug · 19:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇺🇦Anna Lapa
ELO 1482
FormLWWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Shevchuk
VS
🇺🇦Viktoria Shevchuk
ELO 1551
FormLWLLL
41%
59%
Fair odds · Shevchuk
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+69
H2H19-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (19-5)