9 Sept · 09:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RB
🇺🇦Roksolana Budnyk
ELO 1640
FormLWWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Plokhotniuk
NP
🇺🇦Nataliia Plokhotniuk
ELO 1700
FormWLLWL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Plokhotniuk
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 72% · 1.38· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~73 pts
1-3
21%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+60
H2H17-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (17-5)