12 Sept · 21:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AV
🇺🇦Anastasiia Volgina
ELO 1632
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Volgina
VS
🇺🇦Viktoria Shevchuk
ELO 1605
FormWWWWW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Shevchuk
Fair odds · Volgina
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H23-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.