13 Sept · 18:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SY
🇺🇦Svitlana Yureneva
ELO 1534
FormWLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Dronova
UD
🇺🇦Ulana Dronova
ELO 1566
FormWLLLL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Dronova
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~73 pts
1-3
20%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H11-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.