19 Sept · 15:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇺🇦Anna Lapa
ELO 1456
FormLLLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Lapa
OB
🇺🇦Olena Bondareva
ELO 1402
FormLLLLL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Lapa
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~74 pts
3-1
21%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+54
H2H40-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+54)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (40-10)