26 Sept · 18:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇺🇦Anna Lapa
ELO 1442
FormLLLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Lapa
KT
🇺🇦Ksenia Tymchenko
ELO 1399
FormLLLLL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Lapa
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+43
H2H40-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+43)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (40-15)