28 Sept · 09:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
YM
🇺🇦Yana Mykhailyk
ELO 1491
FormWWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Pashchenko
PP
🇺🇦Polina Pashchenko
ELO 1507
FormWLLLL
48%
52%
🌟Pashchenko stays under total as favourite 63% (91)
Fair odds · Pashchenko
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~73 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H6-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.