2 Oct · 21:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇺🇦Anna Lapa
ELO 1451
FormWLWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Gorchakova
AG
🇺🇦Anna Gorchakova
ELO 1504
FormWWWLW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Gorchakova
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+53
H2H30-21
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (30-21)