2 Oct · 18:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇺🇦Anna Lapa
ELO 1451
FormWLWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Lapa
KT
🇺🇦Ksenia Tymchenko
ELO 1388
FormWLWLL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Lapa
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 69% · 1.46· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+63
H2H41-15
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (41-15)