3 Oct · 15:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AG
🇺🇦Anna Gorchakova
ELO 1517
FormWLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Ivchenko
OI
🇺🇦Oleksandra Ivchenko
ELO 1549
FormLLWLL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Ivchenko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H46-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.