7 Oct · 11:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
NP
🇺🇦Nataliia Plokhotniuk
ELO 1653
FormLWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Plokhotniuk
UD
🇺🇦Ulana Dronova
ELO 1624
FormWWLWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Plokhotniuk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H22-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.