9 Oct · 19:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AG
🇺🇦Anna Gorchakova
ELO 1534
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Ivchenko
OI
🇺🇦Oleksandra Ivchenko
ELO 1543
FormLWWLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Ivchenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H46-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.