16 Oct · 18:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇺🇦Anna Lapa
ELO 1452
FormLLWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Gorchakova
AG
🇺🇦Anna Gorchakova
ELO 1523
FormLWWLW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Gorchakova
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+71
H2H31-22
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (31-22)