16 Oct · 19:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KT
🇺🇦Ksenia Tymchenko
ELO 1414
FormWWLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Tymchenko
YS
🇺🇦Yevheniia Severina
ELO 1364
FormWLLWL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Tymchenko
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~74 pts
3-1
21%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+50
H2H5-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+50)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-4)