25 Oct · 18:35 MEZLow · Slight Edge
AL
🇺🇦Anna Lapa
ELO 1466
FormWLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lapa
KT
🇺🇦Ksenia Tymchenko
ELO 1443
FormLWLWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Lapa
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H42-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.