8 Nov · 17:05 MEZLow · Slight Edge
AL
🇺🇦Anna Lapa
ELO 1463
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lapa
OB
🇺🇦Olena Bondareva
ELO 1436
FormWWWLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Lapa
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H41-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.