25 Jun · 17:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1568
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Matus
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Sindler
ELO 1527
FormWLWWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Matus
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.78· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+41
H2H23-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.