26 Jun · 12:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PC
🇨🇿Pavel Chvatal
ELO 1549
FormLWLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Chvatal
RF
🇨🇿Radek Fitl
ELO 1488
FormLWWWW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Chvatal
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+61
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+61)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)