26 Jun · 21:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1605
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Benes
MK
🇨🇿Marek Kulisek
ELO 1587
FormLWLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Benes
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+18
H2H23-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.